Page 376 - ES 2020-21_Volume-1-2 [28-01-21]

State of the Economy 2020-21: A Macro View 3

contact tracing, and prevention of onward spread. The exponential rise in the number of daily
cases compelled the WHO to title this outbreak a pandemic on 11th March, 2020 - within a
period of three months of its emergence. The contagion is still spreading with over 10 crore
confirmed cases around the globe and over 2 lakh deaths. The ensuing shock has been extremely
unconventional in terms of its size and uncertainty, with its impact dependent on unpredictable
factors like intensity of lockdowns, extent of supply chain and financial market disruptions
alongside societal response to the associated public health measures. The pandemic has been
unique in its wide-ranging effects on almost every section of the economy and the society.

SPREAD OF THE PANDEMIC
Global Spread
1.2 Since its first outbreak in Wuhan, China, COVID-19 has infected all continents, including
Antarctica (in December, 2020), and more than 220 countries. The health shock, though global,
has transmitted through different trajectories across countries in terms of total infections,
mortalities, and recoveries. In the initial stages of the pandemic, the Advanced Economies (AE)
of North American and West European region were disproportionately impacted with more than
70 per cent of the total cases and total deaths (Figure 1). The pandemic quickly intensified
in number of Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) such as Brazil, India,
Mexico, Russia and Turkey– that now constitute around 50 per cent of total cases and total
deaths. In recent months, amidst a repeat wave, AEs—particularly the United States and several
Euro area countries—have accounted for an increasing share of cases; in EMDEs, outbreaks in
the Latin America and the Caribbean, and Europe and Central Asia regions have continued to
grow. It is evident that AEs have been affected harder by the pandemic.

Figure 1: Trend in World-wide Spread of COVID-19
1 (a): Share in Cumulative Confirmed Cases 1 (b): Share in Cumulative Deaths
AE China EMDE(excluding China) AE China EMDE(excluding China)
100%
100%
80%
80%
60% 60%

40% 40%

20% 20%

0% 0%
1/Jan 1/Feb 1/Mar 1/Apr 1/May 1/Jun 1/Jul 1/Aug 1/Sep 1/Oct 1/Nov 1/Dec 1/Jan 1/Feb 1/Mar 1/Apr 1/May 1/Jun 1/Jul 1/Aug 1/Sep 1/Oct 1/Nov 1/Dec

Source: WHO, Survey Calculation

1.3 The spread of the pandemic has been in waves as is evident in Figure 2. AEs were
experiencing their third waves, both in terms of cases and deaths, at the end of the year while
EMDEs (excluding China and India) were facing their second waves. China experienced the
first wave of cases in February, 2020 after which it has been able to control the spread. India
experienced its first wave till September, 2020 after which it has been able to effectively manage
the spread – avoiding the second wave as on date.