Page 421 - ES 2020-21_Volume-1-2 [28-01-21]

48 Economic Survey 2020-21 Volume 2

vaccines for emergency use, India initiated the mega vaccination drive on 16 January, 2020.
th
The COVID Vaccine Intelligence Network (Co-WIN) system – a digitalised platform - provides
real-time information of vaccine stocks, their storage temperature and individualised tracking of
beneficiaries of the vaccine on a real-time basis.
1.63 India became the fastest country to roll-out 10 lakh vaccines in a matter of
six days. India has also emerged as a leading supplier of the vaccine to various countries with
initiation of exports to Brazil and Morocco on 22 January, 2021. The swift roll-out of the
nd
vaccine gives strength to the optimism on both health and economic fronts – igniting hopes of a
robust recovery in services sector, private consumption and investment.

CHAPTER AT A GLANCE

 The year 2020 was predominated by the COVID-19 pandemic, posing the most
formidable economic challenge to India and to the world, since the Global Financial
Crisis.
 Global economic output is estimated to fall by 4.4 per cent in 2020, the sharpest
contraction in a century. Advanced economies were hit harder, in terms of lives and
economic output, compared to Emerging Market Developing Economies.

 Without a cure or vaccine, tackling this all-pervasive crisis made public health policy
crucial. While policymakers faced a dilemma of “lives versus livelihoods, i.e., flattening
the disease curve would invariably entail steepening of the recession curve.

 Around the globe, governments and central banks deployed a range of policy tools
such as lowering key policy rates, quantitative easing measures, loan guarantees, and
fiscal stimuli.

 India enforced an intense lockdown at the onset of the pandemic, characterizing a
unique response in several ways driven by the findings from both epidemiological and
economic research. India’s humane policy response focused on saving human lives,
recognising that the short-term pain of an initial, stringent lockdown would lead to
long-term gains both in the lives saved and in the pace of the economic recovery.

 Resultantly, India has managed to avoid the second wave despite continual unlocking.
It has ably managed to flatten the epidemiological curve, with the caseload peaking in
mid-September followed by a steady drop in daily cases and fatalities.

 COVID-19 put emergency brake on an economy that was gaining momentum at the
start of the year 2020. India’s GDP is estimated to grow by (-)7.7 per cent in FY2021,
composed of a sharp 15.7 per cent decline in H1 and a modest (-)0.1 per cent fall in the
second half.
 Agriculture sector has remained the silver lining while contact-based services,
manufacturing, construction were hit the hardest. Starting July, a resilient V-shaped
recovery is well underway, as demonstrated by the recovery in GDP growth and the
sustained resurgence in high frequency indicators such as power demand, E-way bills,
GST collection, steel consumption, etc.