Page 473 - ES 2020-21_Volume-1-2 [28-01-21]

100 Economic Survey 2020-21 Volume 2

by (-) 44.5 per cent to US$ 53.7 billion, contributed by shrinkage in the volume of POL imports
by (-) 16.7 per cent, and drop in the price of crude oil (Indian basket) by (-) 30.2 per cent. While
the total merchandise imports contracted sharply in Q1 of 2020-21 by (-) 52.9 per cent, the pace
of contraction eased in Q2 and Q3 to (-) 23.2 per cent and (-) 8.3 per cent, respectively. This
recovery in imports was contributed by accelerating positive growth in gold and silver imports and
narrowing contraction in non-POL, non-gold & silver imports. Gold & silver imports, constituting
about 7-9 per cent of India’s imports, witnessed a sharp growth of 33.0 per cent in Q3 of 2020-21
to US$ 10.0 billion – primarily due to the simultaneous rise in international gold and silver prices
on account of demand for bullion as safe haven. Fertilizers, vegetable oil, drugs & pharmaceuticals
and computer hardware & peripherals have contributed positively to the growth of non-POL, non-
Gold & Silver imports, while capital goods contributed most to its weakness (Figure 9).
Figure 8: Relative Contribution in Imports Growth

30 30
20 20
10 0 10
0
Per centage Points -10 -10 Growth rate (Y-o-Y), Per cent

-20
-20
-30
-40 -30
-40
-50 -50
-60 -60
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
POL Imports Gold & Silver Imports
Non-POL & Non Gold & Silver Imports Total Imports (RHS)
World Imports (RHS)
Source: Survey calculations based on data of DoC and WTO
Figure 9: Relative Contribution in Non-POL and Non-Gold & Silver Imports
in 2020-21 (April-November)

Capital Goods -10.93
Ores and Minerals -2.93
Pearl, Precs, Semiprecs stones -2.59
Plastic & Rubber Articles -1.49
Organic & Inorganic chemicals -1.33
Pulses -0.06
Computer hardware, Peripherals 0.03
Drugs & Pharmaceutical Products 0.16
Vegetable Oil 0.16
Fertilizers crude & manufactured 0.19
-12.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0
Per centage Points
Source: Survey calculations based on data of DoC