Page 399 - ES 2020-21_Volume-1-2 [28-01-21]

26 Economic Survey 2020-21 Volume 2

log (trade) = a + b1 * log(distance) + b2 * D (Border) + b3 * D (COVID) + e ij,t
ij,t
t
Log (Pairwise inter-state trade)

(1) (2) (3)
Log (distance) -1.436*** -1.407*** -1.402***

(0.014) (0.016) (0.021)

D(Border) 0.333*** 0.352*** 0.361***
(0.026) (0.029) (0.038)

D(COVID) -0.360*** -0.389***
(0.014) (0.019)

Period Jan 2019-Mar 2020 Nov 2019-Nov Dec 2019- Jun
2020 2020

Observations 13020 12090 7440

R-Squared 0.929 0.916 0.908
D(COVID)=1 for March-August 2020 ***p<0.01

D(Border): Dummy variable which takes the value 1 if the pair of States shares borders

The V-shaped recovery in revenue collections was quite quick in states (Figure B6) such
as Telangana and Andhra Pradesh with value of E-way bills per person reaching previous
year levels in June. On the other hand, states like Haryana and Gujarat witnessed recovery a
month later in July while Maharashtra, a key COVID-19 hotspot and the biggest contributor
to India’s GDP witnessed a recovery August onwards.

Figure B6: State-wise Value of Goods Traded Per Person

Source: Data from GSTN curated from public platform Indiapulse@ISB