Page 113 - economic_survey_2021-2022

External Sector 87

Figure 2: Moderation in World Trade Volume and Value in Q3 of 2021

World Trade Volume World Trade Value
50

40
Growth rate (y-o-y), Percent -10
30

20
10
0

-20

-30
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2018 2019 2020 2021 (P)
Source: UNCTAD and WTO
Note: The growth rate is calculated on the basis of index with 2019Q1= 100.
3.4 The trade performance of major economies in volume and value terms during 2021 broadly
reflects the generic trajectory of world trade outlined above. These major economies witnessed
deceleration in Q3 on the back of a pick-up in Q1 and Q2, barring Russia in the case of exports
and Indonesia for imports (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Merchandise trade performance of major economies
a. Growth in Export Volume b. Growth in Import Volume
(y-o-y, Per cent) (y-o-y, Per cent)
100 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4
80 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 60 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3
60 40
40 20
20 0
0 -20
-20 -40
-40 -60
Brazil China India Indonesia Russia S. Africa USA Brazil China India Indonesia Russia S. Africa USA

Source: WTO
Note: The growth rate is calculated on the basis of index with 2019Q1= 100.
3.5 The impact on trade in value terms varied significantly across different types of goods. Trade
of manufacture goods, agricultural products and fuels & mining products witnessed positive and
higher year-over-year (y-o-y) growth during Q2 of 2021 than in Q1, before moderating in Q3.
The trade value of fuels and mining products was boosted by a four-fold rise in natural gas
prices. Among manufactured goods, some sectors showed strong y-o-y increase, including iron
and steel, electronic components and pharmaceuticals while others such as automotive products