Page 34 - economic_survey_2021-2022
P. 34

8       Economic Survey 2021-22

                    Figure 10: Housing Sales and New               Figure 11: RBI Housing Price
                        Launches in Top 8 Cities                          Index: All India
                                                               290
                 100
                                  Sales     Launches
                                                               285
                  80
                                                               280
                 Thousand  60                                  Index  275

                                                               270
                  40
                                                               265
                  20
                                                               260
                   0
                     Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3                   Q1.2018-19  Q2.2018-19  Q3.2018-19  Q4.2018-19  Q1.2019-20  Q2.2019-20  Q3.2019-20  Q4.2019-20  Q1.2020-21  Q2.2020-21  Q3.2020-21  Q4.2020-21  Q1.2021-22  Q2.2021-22(P)
                       2019-20     2020-21     2021-22
             Source: Anarock, Proptiger, RBI
             *Top 8 cities include: Ahmedabad, Benguluru, Chennai, Delhi NCR, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Mumbai, Pune
             1.8  Services account for more than half of the Indian economy and was the most impacted by
             the COVID-19 related restrictions, especially for activities that need human contact. Although
             the overall sector first contracted by 8.4 per cent in 2020-21 and then is estimated to grow by
             8.2 per cent in 2021-22, it should be noted that there is a wide dispersion of performance by
             different sub-sectors. Both the Finance/Real Estate and the Public Administration segments are
             now well above pre-COVID levels. However, segments like Travel, Trade and Hotels are yet to
             fully recover. It should be added that the stop-start nature of repeated pandemic waves makes it
             especially difficult for these sub-sectors to gather momentum.

             1.9  Despite contact-sensitive services still being impacted by COVID, there has been a strong
             recovery of the Purchasing Managers’ Index-Services since August 2021 (Figure 13). In this
             context, it is important to note the role of new forms of High Frequency Indicators to gauge
             real-time trends. For example, the Google mobility indicators for retail and recreation (i.e.,
             restaurants, cafes, shopping centres, etc.) and transit stations (public transport hubs such as
             subway, bus, and train stations), measuring percentage deviation from pre-pandemic levels of
             mobility, has exceeded pre-pandemic levels in December 2021 before the Omicron wave again
             led to restrictions (Figure 12). Similarly, the hotel occupancy rate has recovered substantially,
             reaching 56-58 per cent in October 2021, from 30-32 per cent in April 2021 (Figure 14).

                                             Figure 12: Trends in Mobility

                                             Retail and Recreation   Transit Stations
                          10
                        % Deviation from baseline  -30  1st Lockdown    2nd Wave
                         -10




                         -50

                         -70

                         -90
                             Feb/20  Mar/20  Apr/20  May/20  Jun/20  Jul/20  Aug/20  Sep/20  Oct/20  Nov/20  Dec/20  Jan/21  Feb/21  Mar/21  Apr/21  May/21  Jun/21  Jul/21  Aug/21  Sep/21  Oct/21  Nov/21  Dec/21

                   Source: Google Mobility
                   Note: Baseline corresponds to Jan-Feb 2020 Level
   29   30   31   32   33   34   35   36   37   38   39