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316 Economic Survey 2021-22

TRENDS IN HIGH FREQUENCY INDICATORS

9.5 The upturn in Services GVA, when seen with the trend in high frequency indicators such
as Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Services Index, freight and passenger traffic point to a
pickup in economic momentum.
Services PMI

9.6 India’s services sector activity, gauged by PMI services, which had contracted for five
consecutive months since March 2020, recovered sharply in October 2020. It dropped again for
three consecutive months (May, June and July 2021) as a consequence of the second Covid-19
wave. Notably, the contraction during May-July 2021 was not as sharp as seen during the first
lockdown.
9.7 With the easing of restrictions, PMI Services started to grow once again from August 2021
recording strongest jump in over 10 years to 58.4 in October 2021 (Figure 1(a)). PMI index
3
moderated to 55.5 in December 2021.

Freight traffic

9.8 The freight traffic (rail, air and port) had fallen sharply as a consequence of the complete
lockdown in March 2020 (Figure 1(b, c and d)). As the economy gradually opened up from June
2020, freight traffic also started to improve. Freight traffic registered strong growth in during
April- June 2021, partly reflecting the rebound from the low base during the same period last
year. The impact of second covid wave in April-May 2021 on these indicators was much more
muted as compared to during the full lockodwn in March-May 2020.
9.9 In 2021-22 (till December), total freight loading by Indian railways was 1,029.94 Million
Tonnes (MT) which is 18.37 per cent higher than 870.08 MT during the same period in 2020-
21. Infact, Indian railways recorded almost 16 per cent increase in freight loading as compared
to the corresponding period during the pre-pandemic year (2019-20), where the freight loading
was 888.88 MT.

9.10 Indian airports handled 20.97 lakh tonnes of freight in 2021-22 (till November) as compared
to 14.44 lakh tonnes during the same period last year recording a growth of 45.25 per cent. This
is slightly lower than the air freight loading of 22.88 lakh tonnes during the pre-pandemic period
of April-November 2019.

9.11 Between April- November 2021, Indian ports handled total traffic of 857.3 MT as compared
to 779.1 MT handled during the same period in 2020, registering a growth of over 10 per cent.
The cargo traffic recorded so far in 2021 has almost reached the pre-pandemic level of 864.3
MT during April- November 2019.

3 A reading above 50 indicates expansion in economic activity.