Page 195 - economic_survey_2021-2022

Prices and Inflation 169

al., 1990) was used for the decomposition. The monthly retail price data at the All-India level have
been taken from Department of Consumer Affairs. The figure 1A shows the trend of the retail prices
of tomato and onion.
Figure 1A: Retail prices of tomato and onion

100
90 Onion Tomato
80
70
60
Rs. 50
40
30
20
10
0
Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21 Dec-21

Source: Department of Consumer Affairs
1. Tomato:

Seasonality in tomato:
The seasonal components tend to put an upward pressure on prices of tomato during July to November
every year; upward pressure remain highest in July (Figure 1B). On the other hand, seasonal factor
puts largest downward pressure on prices in March. This seasonality in prices results from the
seasonal pattern of production of tomato, as about 70 per cent of production of tomato takes place
during Rabi season: transplantation during October-February and harvest during December-June.
Kharif production during July-November usually contributes less than 30 per cent of total production
of tomato in a year. This variation in supply puts upward pressure on tomato prices every year during
July-November. If there were no irregular shocks, then seasonality would have caused tomato prices
to be around Rs. 15 higher in July 2021 over March 2021 compared to the long-term trend.

Figure 1B: Seasonality in the retail prices of tomato

10

5 2019 2020 2021

Rs. 0

-5

-10
January February March April May June July August September October November December

Source: Survey calculations