Page 196 - economic_survey_2021-2022

170 Economic Survey 2021-22

Price shocks in tomato:
Figure 1C presents the irregular component in the retail price series of tomato during the last 5 years.
The large jumps in the chart can be used to identify incidents of price shocks. Six instances have been
identified when the irregular component has displayed a large spike (close to or greater than Rs. 10)
in the case of the retail price of tomato. Possible reasons for the spikes are given in the Table 1A.
Figure 1C: Irregular component in the retail prices of tomato

40
35
30
25
20
Rs. 15
10
5
0
-5
-10
Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21 Dec-21

Source: Survey calculations

Table 1A: Incidents of price shocks in tomato during the last five years

Incidents identified Reasons
June 2016 Short supply of tomato, as the Rabi crop of 2016 got damaged by
severe drought conditions in the southern states.

July-August 2017 Rains in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan caused some damage to the
crop. In addition, issues with transportation with trucks taking more
than the normal time due to the rains leading to reduction in arrivals.
Stocks stored got spoiled due to the rain.
November-December Unseasonal rains in growing regions such as Karnataka and Madhya
2017 Pradesh.
May 2019 Delayed harvesting in Maharashtra as well as fungus damaged
crops in Karnataka triggered the initial uptick in prices, which was
exacerbated by supply disruptions due to incessant rains and flood
like situations in key supplier states – Karnataka, Maharashtra and
Himachal Pradesh.
September 2020 Lower arrival of the new crop from key growing states due to heavy
rains.
November 2021 Unseasonal rains in Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Himachal
Pradesh which led to crop damage and delay in arrival from these
states. Delayed arrivals from the northern states were followed by
heavy rains in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka
which further disrupted the supply.