Page 22 - ES 2020-21_Volume-1-2 [28-01-21]
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Saving Lives and Livelihoods Amidst a Once-in-a-Century Crisis  5


             of evidence, India’s policy response valuing human life, even while paying the price of
             temporary GDP decline, has initiated the process of transformation where the short-term
             trade-off between lives and livelihoods is converted into a win-win in the medium to long-
             term that saves both lives and livelihoods.
                                           Box 1: Flattening the Curve

               Epidemiological research highlights that a key strategy to combat the spread of an epidemic is
               termed as “flattening the curve.” The curve refers to the projected number of people who will
               contract the disease in a given population. The shape of the curve varies according to the rapidity
               with which the infection spreads in the community. There is a “peak” of the disease, where the
               number of infected individuals reaches a maximum, followed by a decline. Policymakers care
               particularly about the time taken to reach this peak because this determines the time available to
               respond to early signs of a pandemic. The peak number of infected individuals is also important
               as it determines the scale of medical facilities required. Overloaded healthcare systems that are
               forced to operate beyond their capacity lead to higher case fatality rates. In the short run, the
               capacity of any country’s health system is finite (number of hospital beds, number of skilled
               health  professionals,  ventilators/Integrated  Care  Units  among  others).  This  puts  an  upper
               bound on the number of patients that can be properly treated, at any given point of time. If the
               spread of the pandemic exceeds the existing capacity of the health system, it may lead to higher
               mortality rates. The ‘flattening of the curve’ spreads the pandemic over time, enabling more
               people to receive proper health treatment – ultimately lowering the fatality rate.

                                                 Flattening the Curve






















               The transmission potential is often summarized by the expected number of new infections
               caused by a typical infected individual during the early phase of the outbreak, and is usually
               denoted by the basic reproduction number, R . It is simply the expected number of new
                                                            0
               cases of the disease caused by a single individual. Three possibilities exist for the potential
               transmission or decline of a disease, depending on its R  value: (i) If R  < 1, each existing
                                                                     0
                                                                                    0
               infection causes less than one new infection and the disease eventually peters out; (ii) If R
                                                                                                      0
               =1, each existing infection causes one new infection and will not lead to an outbreak or an
               epidemic and (iii) If R  > 1, each existing infection causes more than one new infection and
                                    0
               there may be an outbreak or epidemic. Occasionally, one person may transmit to tens or even
               hundreds of other cases - this phenomenon is called super-spreading.
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