Page 27 - ES 2020-21_Volume-1-2 [28-01-21]

10 Economic Survey 2020-21 Volume 1

1.13 For COVID-19 in particular, studies show that density and city size aggravate its spread
(Stier et al., 2020; Ribeiro et al., 2020). In dense areas, commuters make more extensive use of
public transport. The physical proximity and grouping of people in public transport may also be
a source of contagion (Harris, 2020). A study on pattern of spread in the U.S. shows that higher
population density is associated with higher transmission rates of the virus (Gerritse, 2020) -
population density that is twice as high yields about 0.7 points higher transmission rates (Figure
5). It also shows that the role of population density in transmission peaks during early phase of
the pandemic: population density is more strongly linked to high transmission rates in March
than it is in April or May. This signifies that denser areas are more vulnerable to faster spread
of the virus and this effect is stronger at the onset of the epidemic. This had important policy
implications in terms of early measures to prevent spread for a densely populated country like
India with more than 130 crore people and a population density of 382 persons per square km
versus the global average of 58 persons per square km.

Figure 5: Population Density Affects Transmission in Early Phase of Pandemic

Source: Adapted from Gerritse (2020) (Based on study on pattern of spread in the U.S.)

Efficacy of Lockdowns in a Pandemic: Learnings from Spanish Flu
1.14 Given the uncertainty and potency of the COVID-19 virus, it was prudent to learn
from any earlier experience. The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-19, was one of the deadliest
in world history with peak of worldwide mortality in modern times, as it infected around
500 million persons, or about one-third of the world's population, and killed anywhere from
50 to 100 million people (Barro et al, 2020). Like COVID-19, the Spanish flu was highly
contagious; it was also unusually lethal for young, “prime-age” adults, especially men.
It came in three waves beginning in the spring of 1918. The second wave, in the fall of
1918, was the largest by far in terms of total infections and deaths. A third wave occurred
in the spring of 1919. The pandemic began during World War I, and the virus is thought to
have been introduced and spread throughout the United States by soldiers returning from
Europe. Lockdowns implemented in 1918 resemble many of the policies used to reduce
the spread of COVID-19, including school, theater, and church closures, public gathering
and funeral bans, quarantine of suspected cases, and restricted business hours. Other public
health interventions used were emphasis on hand-washing, sanitization practices and social/
physical distancing.