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Saving Lives and Livelihoods Amidst a Once-in-a-Century Crisis 13

Figure 7: Lockdowns are Effective in Reducing both Mortality and Unemployment

Source: Adapted from Correia et al. (2020)

1.19 It also shows that implementing lockdowns earlier in the pandemic and using them more
intensely produced significantly higher rates of growth in manufacturing output and employment
from 1919 to 1923 than did slower activation or less intense use of lockdowns. Estimates from
the study indicates that a one standard deviation increase in the speed of adopting lockdowns
(8 days) is associated with 4 per cent higher growth of employment and 5 per cent higher
output after the pandemic, while a one standard deviation increase in lockdown intensity leads
to 6 per cent higher employment growth and 7 per cent higher output. The findings suggest
that pandemics can have substantial economic costs, and lockdowns can lead to both better
economic outcomes and lower mortality rates (Figure 8).

Figure 8: Effectiveness of Lockdowns in Enabling Faster Economic Recovery

Figure 8a: Duration of NPIs and Log Figure 8b: Speed of NPI and Log
Manufacturing Employment Manufacturing Employement