Page 35 - ES 2020-21_Volume-1-2 [28-01-21]

18 Economic Survey 2020-21 Volume 1

Cross-Country Analysis
1.30 Survey has analyzed if the policy response across countries was effective in controlling
the spread of the pandemic and associated fatalities across countries. To assess this, the counter-
factual is estimated, i.e., what would have been the natural caseload and associated fatalities
purely based on the population, population density and the demographics of the population.
Given the network effects that affect the spread of the pandemic, the size of the population,
population density as well as the demographics, especially the proportion of the elderly
population, affect the caseload across countries. Moreover, the number of tests conducted also
impact the caseload. Therefore, using a panel regression model, natural expected per capita
cases has been estimated using mentioned explanatory variables (Box 4). A second regression
model is used to estimate the effect on per capita fatalities of the number of cases per capita,
the proportion of elderly who are more likely to suffer fatal consequences than other sections
of the population as well as the health infrastructure as captured by the number of hospital beds
per capita. The sample includes the top 30 countries in terms of total confirmed cases, which
represent 86 per cent of the world caseload, from March to December 2020 (details of the model
are in Box 4). After estimating the natural caseload and fatalities, the actual cases and deaths
are compared with these estimates. The analysis shows that India has been able to effectively
manage both the spread of COVID-19 and the fatalities. India has 37.1 lakh less cases than what
was estimated by the model while the actual cases in US are more than the estimated cases by
62.5 lakh cases (Figure 12).

Figure 12: Management of COVID-19 across Countries (Measured as Actual Cases vis-à-vis
Naturally Expected)

Source: Survey calculations; Positive (negative) number implies actual cases less (more) than naturally expected