Page 38 - ES 2020-21_Volume-1-2 [28-01-21]

Saving Lives and Livelihoods Amidst a Once-in-a-Century Crisis 21

Figure 15: Management of COVID-19 across Countries (Measured as Actual Deaths vis-à-vis
Naturally Expected)

Source: Survey calculations; Positive (negative) number implies actual deaths less (more) than naturally expected
1.33 Collating the results of the analysis with the stringency of lockdowns across countries
show that higher initial stringency in countries in March-April, 2020 had a significant impact on
controlling the number of confirmed cases and deaths (at 10 per cent level of significance). India
has been a clear outlier both in cases and deaths (Figure 16).

Figure 16: Effectiveness of Initial Stringent Lockdown in Control of COVID-19 Cases
and Deaths across Countries

Source: Survey calculations
1.34 The cross-country analysis above demonstrates clearly that the intense lockdown helped
India to effectively manage the pandemic. Given the diversity within India, an inter-state analysis