Page 39 - ES 2020-21_Volume-1-2 [28-01-21]

22 Economic Survey 2020-21 Volume 1

is also informative to assess States that were able to manage the spread of COVID-19 well.
The network impact of COVID-19 is evident in India with States with higher population and
population density having witnessed higher spread of cases and weak in case of deaths (Figure
17).

Figure 17: Correlation between COVID-19 and Population Parameters

Figure 17a: Total Confirmed Cases and Figure 17b: Total Confirmed Cases and
Population Population Density (per sq.km)
16
15 Mah 15 Mah
14 14
13 UP 13 UP
12 Bih 12 Bih
Log Cases 11 Log Cases 11
10
10

8 9 9 8
7 7
6 6
12 14 16 18 20 2 4 6 8 10
Log Population
Log Population Density

Figure 17d: Total Confirmed Cases and Population
Figure 17c: Total Confirmed Cases and Population
Density (per sq.km)

3.5% 3.5%

3.0% 3.0%
Mah Mah
2.5% 2.5%

2.0% 2.0%
CFR 1.5% UP CFR 1.5% UP

1.0% 1.0%
Bih
0.5% Bih 0.5%

0.0% 0.0%
12 14 16 18 20 2 4 6 8 10
Log Population Log Population Density

Source: Data accessed from https://www.Covid19india.org/ and MOHFW - Data as on 31 December, 2020
st
1.35 The model shows that Maharashtra has performed the worst in number of cases and deaths. In
terms of estimated cases, Survey compares Maharashtra with Uttar Pradesh and Bihar; as seen in the
top-left panel of figure 17, these three States have the most population with Bihar and Maharashtra
having almost identical population. But Maharashtra has a lower population density than both Bihar
and Uttar Pradesh. Yet, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have much lower cases than what is naturally
expected while Maharashtra had much higher cases. In fact, highly populous, densely populated