Page 44 - ES 2020-21_Volume-1-2 [28-01-21]

Saving Lives and Livelihoods Amidst a Once-in-a-Century Crisis 27

Figure 21b: Daily COVID Cases and Mobility Figure 21c: Recovery Rate vs Fatality Rate
0 100 100% 4.0%
% change from baseline -40 60 Number '000 60% 3.0%
3.5%
80
-20
80%
2.5%
2.0%
-60
40
40%
1.5%
-80
0.5%
-100 20 20% 1.0%
0
0.0%
0%
01-Apr 01-May 31-May 30-Jun 30-Jul 29-Aug 28-Sep 28-Oct 27-Nov 27-Dec 01/May 31/May 30/Jun 30/Jul 29/Aug 28/Sep 28/Oct 27/Nov 27/Dec
Retail Mobility,7 dma
Daily new cases, 7 dma (RHS) Recovery Rate Fatality Rate (RHS)
st
Source: Data accessed from https://www.Covid19india.org/ and MOHFW - Data as on 31 December, 2020
1.38 As of January 15, 2020, the spread of the pandemic has been effectively controlled.
The number of days to add an additional 10 lakh confirmed cases has been increasing since
September, 2020 (Figure 22a). India took 168 days to reach the first 10 lakh cases – largely
due to the stringent lockdown in the initial days. The lockdown, in effect, pushed the epidemic
curve ahead and gave time to policymakers to build up the testing and health infrastructure to
cope up with the increasing caseload once lockdowns were eased – in effect shifting the peak
of the pandemic to September. The institutional capacity built during the initial period helped to
cope with the peak caseload and sustain the controlled spread after the peak. Among the worst
affected countries, India took around 175 days to reach the peak from its first 100 cases while
most countries reached their first peak in less than 50 days (Figure 22b). This may have led to
overwhelming of their health capacity.

Figure 22: Shifting of the Peak of the COVID-19 Curve in India
Figure 22a: Days to Reach Next 10 lakh Figure22b: Peaking Time of COVID-19 in
Confirmed Cases in India Top Countries

100 29
22
90 18
Confirmed cases in Lakh 70 11
80
13
60
12
50
40
13
30
20
21
10 16 168
0 50 100 150 200
Days taken to reach next 10 lakh confirmed
cases
Source: Data accessed from https://www.Covid19india.org/ and MOHFW - Data as on 31 December, 2020
st