Page 45 - ES 2020-21_Volume-1-2 [28-01-21]

28 Economic Survey 2020-21 Volume 1

1.39 Also, most countries experienced their subsequent waves within a period of 2-3 months
of crossing their first peak. These second waves have been more lethal in terms of number of
cases. (Figure 23). The fatalities in US were 2.9 times higher during second wave. The prospect
of India facing a strong second wave is receding with the start of the vaccination this year.
Figure 23: Second Wave in Countries Has Been More Lethal

Source: Survey Calculation
1.40 From the peak of 97,900 new cases in a day on September 16, 2020, the COVID-19 curve
has flattened with a decline in the number of active cases and new daily cases (Figure 24).

Figure 25: Comparison of COVID-19 Deaths in Top 10 Worst Affected Countries

Source: Data accessed from Covid19india.org, MoHFW as on 31 December, 2020
st
1.41 India’s strategy of imposition of a stringent lockdown in the initial stages to control the spread
and focus on ramping up testing infrastructure and health facilities are validated by this analysis. The
lockdown, therefore, was a critical instrument in “flattening the curve” and saving lives.