Page 31 - ES 2020-21_Volume-1-2 [28-01-21]

14 Economic Survey 2020-21 Volume 1

Figure 8c: Duration of NPIs and Log Figure 8d: Speed of NPI and Log
Manufacturing Output Manufacturing Output

Source: Adapted from Correia et al. (2020)

1.20 Learning from the experiences of the Spanish Flu, two basic kinds of public-health measures
to control spread of COVID-19 were adopted: quarantining people to reduce the quantity of
people interacting and encouraging behavioral measures such as better sanitary practices to
reduce the spread of germs. Several countries, therefore, resorted to use of lockdowns in the
initial phase of the pandemic lockdowns of varying degrees to ensure that people stayed at
home, minimizing the spread of the infections.
1.21 The above learnings from research in epidemiology and economics, especially the
research focused on the Spanish Flu, guided India’s policy response. In sum, the learnings were
as follows:

a. The pandemic curve needs to be ‘flattened’ to spread the pandemic over time and enable
more people to receive proper health treatment, thereby lowering the fatality rate ultimately.

b. Given the network structures that affect the transmission of the pandemic, higher population
can lead to faster spread of the pandemic.
c. Denser areas are more vulnerable to faster spread of the virus and this effect is especially
strong at the onset of the pandemic.
d. Early lockdowns delay the time taken to reach the peak, reduces the magnitude of the peak,
and thereby decreases the total mortality burden by providing valuable time to ramp up the
health and testing infrastructure.
e. Implementing lockdowns earlier in the pandemic and using them more intensely – while costly
in the short-run – led to a much sharper economic recovery and reduced mortality as well.

f. When faced with enormous uncertainty, policies must be designed with the objective of
minimizing large losses by selecting the policy that would be optimal under the worst-case
scenario.