Page 25 - ES 2020-21_Volume-1-2 [28-01-21]

8 Economic Survey 2020-21 Volume 1

Figure 4: Correlation between COVID-19 and Population Parameters

Figure 4a: Total Confirmed Cases and Figure 4b: Total Confirmed Cases and
Population Population Density (per sq.km)

18 18

16 16

14
14
Log Total Cases 12 Log Total Cases 12

10
10

8 8

6 6
10 15 20 0 2 4 6 8
Log Population Log Population Density

Figure 4c: Total Deaths and Population Figure 4d: Total Deaths and Population
Density (per sq.km)
12 12

11 11
10 10
9 8 9 8
Log Total Deaths 7 6 Log Total Deaths 7 6

5 5
4 4
3 3
2 2
10 15 20 0 2 4 6 8
Log Population Log Population Density
Source: Data accessed from World Health Organization as on 31 December, 2020
st
Note: Top 160 countries in terms of cases and deaths have been taken for the analysis.
Box 2: Network Effects of a Pandemic
The transmission potential of an epidemic is measured by the basic reproduction number,
R - the expected number of new cases of the disease caused by a single individual. R is
0
0
an interplay between the number of people an infected person meets (k) and the probability
with which he spreads the infection to the person he comes into contact with (p). Small
changes in (k) and (p) can have a large effect when R is near 1. Suppose R is very slightly
0
0
below 1, and any one of the factors increases by a little bit; the result could push R above
0
1, suddenly resulting in a positive probability of an enormous outbreak. The same effect
can happen in the reverse direction as well, where slightly reducing the contagiousness of a