Page 396 - economic_survey_2021-2022

370 Economic Survey 2021-22

Trends in data on demand for work under MGNREGS

10.55 The demand for work under Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee
Scheme (MGNREGS) is an indicator of rural labour markets. An analysis of the latest data on
demand for work under MGNREGS suggests the following trends in the rural labour market:
(i) MGNREGS employment peaked during the nation-wide lockdown in 2020 (ii) the demand
for MGNREGS work has stabilized after the second COVID wave; (iii) aggregate MGNREGS
employment is still higher than pre-pandemic level (Figure 15).

10.56 During the nationwide lockdown, the aggregate demand for MGNREGS work peaked

in June 2020, and has thereafter stabilized. During the second-COVID-wave, demand for

MGNREGS employment reached the maximum level of 4.59 crore persons in June 2021.
Nonetheless, after accounting for seasonality, the demand at an aggregate level still seems to be

above the pre-pandemic levels of 2019 (Figure 15). For some states like Andhra Pradesh and

Bihar, the demand for work under MGNREGS has reduced to below the pre-pandemic levels
during the last few months.
Figure 15: Persons demanded work under MGNREGS (in Crores)
Figure 15: Persons demanded work under MGNREGS (in Crores)

7
6 2019 2020 2021

5
Crore persons 4

3
2
1

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Source: MGNREGA portal, D/o Rural Development
Source: MGNREGA portal, D/o Rural Development

10.57 Intuitively, one may expect that higher MGNREGS demand may be directly related to
the movement of migrant labour i.e. source states would be more impacted. Nevertheless, state-

level analysis shows that for many migrant source states like West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh,

Odisha, Bihar, the MGNREGS employment in most months of 2021 has been lower than

the corresponding levels in 2020. In contrast, the demand for MGNREGS employment has

been higher for migrant recipient states like Punjab, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu
for most months in 2021 over 2020. There are still other states that do not neatly fit into this
categorization. Therefore, the relationship between MGNREGS employment and movement of

migrant labour during the last two years cannot be conclusively determined, and requires further
research.

1