Page 641 - ES 2020-21_Volume-1-2 [28-01-21]

268 Economic Survey 2020-21 Volume 2

Figure 5: Value of seasonally adjusted index in month of November-2020
as percent of pre-lockdown level (February-2020)

102
100
98
96
94
92

90
88
86
84
82
Coal Electricity Cement Eight-core Petroleum Natural Gas Crude Oil Steel Fertilizers
Refinery
Products
Source: Survey calculations based on Office of Economic Adviser’s data.

8.7 The overall IIP broadly follows the eight-core index. The IIP attained a growth of (-) 1.9
per cent in November-2020 as compared to 2.1 per cent in November-2019 (Table 3 and Figure
2). The cumulative growth of IIP for the period April-November 2020 was (-) 15.5 per cent as
compared to 0.3 per cent from April-November 2019. The improvement in the eight-core index
and the IIP from their nadir is evident as both the indices stood at 94 per cent and 96.5 per cent of
the pre-lockdown (February-2020) levels, respectively on a seasonally adjusted basis (Figure 3).

8.8 Based on the broad-sectoral classification, in November-2020, mining contracted by 7.3
per cent as against a contraction of 1.9 per cent in November-2019. The manufacturing sector
recorded a growth of (-) 1.7 per cent in November-2020 as against a growth of 3.0 per cent in
November-2019, and the electricity sector recorded a growth of 3.5 per cent in November-2020
as against a contraction of 5.0 per cent in November-2019 (Table 3).

8.9 Industrial activities recovered sharply except the mining sector, which is still at lower
levels as compared to the pre-lockdown levels (Figure 6). A similar pattern has been observed
in all the major indices captured under the Used Based Classification (Figure 7). However,
performance of the primary goods sector, which has a weight of 34.05 per cent was sluggish as
compared to its counterparts in the IIP.

8.10 In the following section, the IIP index is analysed at broad item levels. The IIP has
407 items/item groups (5-digit NIC classification), of which 171 had recorded growth in
November-2020, which was significantly higher than 28 in April-2020 (Figure 8 and Table
4). In the past, the average number of commodities that recorded monthly growth in the pre-
covid regime (from Apr-12 to Feb-20) were 217. More specifically, in November-2019 and
November-2018 the number of items/item groups that recorded positive growth were 210 and
162, respectively.